What should real estate investors expect next year in the North Carolina housing market? Here’s a quick overview of the top North Carolina real estate market predictions for 2025:

• Strong job growth and in-migration will continue driving housing demand. Housing inventory, especially in Raleigh, is increasing, which should help moderate price increases. Prices in the Charlotte will likely rise between 2.3% and 4.4% next year. Raleigh’s market will also see continued price increases, fueled by high demand relative to supply.
• New listings have risen, helping to create a more balanced market for 2025. Raleigh, particularly, is seeing a lot of new construction. However, inventory in areas like Wake County and Chapel Hill is still low, keeping the housing inventory tighter in those markets.
• New apartment units will stabilize or slightly increase rents. However, strong rental demand, mainly due to housing affordability issues, will prevent big rent drops. Raleigh’s rental rates will likely stabilize or see modest changes, while Charlotte’s rents may rebound moderately by mid-2025 as the market adjusts to increased supply.

The data and insights on the North Carolina housing market below are geared toward real estate investors. However, real estate agents, home builders, and anyone interested in the North Carolina real estate market will also find the content helpful. Plus, we’ve included insights and predictions for the state’s top cities of Charlotte and Raleigh.

We’ve used data from Zillow, NC Realtors, Redfin, UNC’s Carolina Demography Research, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to support these 2025 predictions for the housing market in North Carolina.

What key trends will shape real estate investing in North Carolina? We’ve examined some key factors to gather insights into the current market and what to expect for the coming year.

Only three states (Texas, Florida, and California) surpassed North Carolina’s population growth between July 2023 and July 2024, adding 165,000 new permanent residents. Since the 2020 Census, North Carolina has added 605,000 people to reach over 11 million. By 2050 is expected to have a population of 14 million.

Source: NC OSBM

In 2024, North Carolina’s population growth rate of 1.5% was the 8th fastest in the U.S., a good indicator that the Tar Heel State might see even more population growth in the next couple of years.

From July 2023 to July 2024, net domestic migration came from 82,000 people. From April 2020 to July 2024, net migration accounts for 95% of the population gains in the entire state. Looking closely at Census data, we see that since April 2020, North Carolina has had a net gain of 376,000 people from net migration. Most migrants came from neighboring states like Florida, South Carolina, Virginia, and New York.

The largest population increases occurred in coastal areas, counties like Brunswick and New Hanover, and the suburbs of major cities like Charlotte and The Triangle (Durham, Chapel Hill, Raleigh), including Wake County, Mecklenburg County, and their suburbs.

In 2023, the fastest-growing counties in North Carolina were Brunswick County (17.4%), Johnston (11.6%), Union (8.2%), Iredell (8.2%), and Cabarrus (7.6%). These counties saw much higher growth rates than the state’s overall rate of 1.3%.

In September 2024, North Carolina’s job market had 279,000 job openings, outpacing August’s numbers by 23,000 new jobs. That month, the job opening rate of 5.3% beat the national average (4.5% in September).

In September 2024, finding work in North Carolina was easier than in most places across the United States. There were more job openings than job seekers. Specifically, the ratio of unemployed persons per job opening was 0.7 in September, compared to the national average of 0.9 for that month.

And job growth isn’t slowing down. Employment projections by the North Carolina Department of Commerce indicate that the state expects to have over 628,000 job openings added annually through 2032. Driven by a vibrant job market, 254,000 openings will come from existing workers retiring or resigning, 323,600 openings from job changes and transfers, and about 51,000 due to economic growth (new jobs).

North Carolina smashed records in the second quarter of 2024, with its employment figures pushing past the 5 million mark. The state added close to 72,000 jobs in Q2 2024. The healthcare and education sectors led job growth, with over 23,000 new jobs. Government employment wasn’t far behind, with 21,500 new jobs. But it was a tough break for manufacturing, which saw jobs dip for the fifth quarter in a row. It lost 6,600 jobs in Q2 2024.

Source: DMJPS/US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Raleigh leads the charge in employment growth with a 2.5% increase. Durham-Chapel Hill and Greenville are hot on its heels, with 2.1% each. Charlotte boasts the highest hourly wage at $35.93, followed by Durham-Chapel Hill at $35.39.

Consumer spending in the state is also strong. Total taxable retail sales pushed past $60 billion in the second quarter of 2024—a sign that the state’s economy is thriving. This economic growth will positively affect the North Carolina housing market.

Even with a tiny dip in employment numbers from 5.08 million in May to less than 5.07 million in October, North Carolina’s job scene remains strong. The total job growth rate in the state from October 2023 to October 2024 was 1.5%, and the unemployment rate remains relatively stable at 3.6-3.7%.

The housing market in North Carolina is a bit unusual. Even though inventory has grown, there’s still a lot of demand, leading to increased prices. From October 2023 to October 2024, the median home sales price increased by 3.4%, from $355,000 to $366,900. Our takeaway is that the area still has strong demand, which keeps prices high despite the increased housing supply.

As of October 2024, the North Carolina housing market had 4.48 months of inventory. Remember, a balanced market requires six months’ worth of inventory. While North Carolina is moving towards balance, it’s still a seller’s market. In October, sales dropped 2.5% year over year from 11,863 to 11,572.

We are also seeing more homes listed, which is helping to balance the North Carolina real estate market. There were about 53,402 listings in October 2024, compared to 48,323 last October, an increase of 10.5%. However, there still aren’t enough homes to tip the scales.

Things might change significantly in the next few years as North Carolina’s government focuses on increasing the housing supply. In 2023, 4.7 new housing units were authorized for every 1,000 existing homes. This exceeded the national average of 2.5 per 1,000 existing units that year. North Carolina built homes faster than the rest of the country, earning it the nation’s fourth-highest number of homes under construction.

This construction surge shows builders are confident in North Carolina’s housing market growth potential. With a fast-growing population, there’s a strong demand for housing. In the second quarter of 2024 alone, there were over 25,000 residential building permits in the state, the highest level since 2020.

As of Q2 2024, the total value of North Carolina’s residential building permits reached approximately $6.27 billion, indicating that the state is dedicated to increasing the number of housing units available. Of the total permits, 7,011 are for multifamily units (27.3% of all housing units).

Areas like Apex, Holly Springs, and Fuquay-Varina have become the new hotspots for builders because they offer a good balance of price, location, and amenities.

Demand for housing remains high in major urban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham, making them desirable areas for real estate investing in North Carolina. The strong job market in these cities, especially in growing fields like tech and healthcare, continues to attract people.

In 2025, the housing market in North Carolina will remain stable, mainly due to continued job growth and people moving to the state. Prices will continue to grow but at a moderate pace, with some regional variations.

In Charlotte, city leaders are considering changing the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) to make it easier for developers to build new housing. These proposed changes include allowing higher-density housing, converting office spaces into homes, and making the permitting process smoother. All these in a bid to solve the affordable housing problem.

Also, from August 17, 2024, brokers are prohibited from setting buyer agent commissions. This move, known as decoupling, is handing the reins back to buyers and sellers. They’ll negotiate how much to pay their agents, a step away from the old days when the seller usually covered a 5% to 6% commission.

If you’re looking to buy a home, brokers must lay it all out in writing before the first home is toured. Also, any compensation paid to the buyer’s broker needs the seller’s prior approval. These new rules ensure everything is above board. While these are now a requirement for all real estate transactions across the U.S., buyer brokerage agreements have been a longstanding practice in North Carolina since the 1990s.

Want more insights? Learn more about our take on where the U.S. housing market is headed in the next 5 years.

Below we explore a few Charlotte housing market predictions and the overall forecast for the metro area in 2025.

The Charlotte metro area is one of the fastest growing in the U.S. Its population rose by 46,000 from 2023 to 2024, which led to increased housing demand and consistent price rises.

Here are some quick facts real estate investors need to know:

• Charlotte ranks second to New York City, in terms of the number of bank headquarters, including Bank of America, Truist Financial, and Wells Fargo’s East Coast.
• Charlotte’s Douglas International Airport is the world’s seventh-busiest by aircraft movements.
• The city of Charlotte itself is a key logistics center due to its location at the intersection of I-85 and I-77.
• The metro area is also a significant manufacturing region in the Carolinas. Fortune 500 companies like Duke Energy, Honeywell, Siemens Energy, and Lowe’s operate there.
• Atrium Health, Novant Health, and Red Ventures also have a presence in Charlotte.
• The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metro area’s GDP has steadily increased in recent years. Its 2023 GDP totals $255.6 billion.

• In October 2024, Charlotte’s unemployment rate was 3.4%, up from 3.2% in October 2023, but still below the national average of 3.9%.
• Nonfarm payroll employment grew 2.2% from October 2023 to October 2024, slightly above the national average.
• Education and Health Services (6.1%) and Leisure and Hospitality (5.9%) saw the highest employment growth.

• In Q1 2024, Charlotte’s average weekly wage was $1,641, exceeding the national average of $1,527.
• Mecklenburg County’s weekly average wage within the Charlotte metro area was the highest at $1,989.

• Because of its job and wage growth, Charlotte keeps attracting new residents.
• The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metro area added 50,458 residents between July 2022 and July 2023, the sixth-largest increase in the US.
• The total population reached approximately 2.8 million residents in 2023.

Below are several North Carolina housing market predictions for the largest metro area in the state, Charlotte.

Charlotte home prices are expected to rise moderately, between 2.3% and 4.4%. The area’s population currently exceeds 2.8 million and continues to grow, fueling housing demand. Population growth and a strong job market will lead to a steady increase in home prices in Charlotte in 2025.

Housing inventory has risen in the metro area. In July 2024, active listings rose 48.6% year-over-year. However, the Charlotte, North Carolina, housing market still faces an inventory shortage, especially for homes in affordable price ranges. This scarcity of affordable homes will keep driving prices up since demand is still strong.

Charlotte’s median home price rose from roughly $414,000 in September 2023 to $429,000 in September 2024. That equals a 4% year-over-year increase despite affordability remaining a significant issue.

Stats from the University of North Carolina’s “State of Housing in Charlotte” show that in September 2024, only 2% of Charlotte homes sold for under $150,000, and just about 19% sold for under $300,000. This shows far fewer affordable housing options than in previous years.

Despite high interest rates and affordability issues, Charlotte homebuyers remain active. In October, pending sales rose 23.6% year-over-year and 4.4% month-over-month, with over 3,700 homes under contract.

After previous declines, rents in the Charlotte, North Carolina housing market are stabilizing. In April 2024, Charlotte’s rental rates saw a slow upward movement after months of decreases. From April to June, the average rent was up 0.1% on a trailing three-month basis. As of June, the average rent in Charlotte was still down 2.3% year-over-year.

The slowdown in Charlotte’s rental market is due to the area’s high housing supply. In the first half of 2024 alone, 6,116 units were delivered, and 34,543 units were under construction as of June 2024.

With such an influx, even with strong rental demand, rent prices are seeing minimal changes. As of December 2024, the median rent in Charlotte, North Carolina, was $1,950, just $5 more than the median rent in December 2023. While Charlotte’s strong local economy and population growth are driving rental demand, the increased housing supply is acting as a counterbalance.

Charlotte’s apartment rental market has cooled off lately, with rents dropping for six quarters. All the new apartment construction put the brakes on rent growth in the area. Now, in the new-build apartments, landlords have to compete for renters.

According to Multilytics, rents will rebound moderately. Class A rents in major markets like Charlotte will rebound by mid-2025 as these markets absorb excess apartment inventory.

Raleigh is one of the fastest-growing metro areas in North Carolina. What can we expect from its housing market in 2025?

The Raleigh-Durham-Cary area, which includes the famous Research Triangle, is home to over 2.3 million people as of 2023. This vibrant region encompasses the cities of Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill. It is known for its prestigious educational institutions, such as North Carolina State University, Duke University, and the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

Raleigh, the capital of North Carolina, is the second-largest city in the state, with a population of 482,000 in 2023. Most of the town lies within Wake County, with a small portion spilling into Durham County. Several thriving suburbs and satellite towns surround Raleigh, such as Apex, Cary, and Wake Forest.

• The Milken Institute ranked Raleigh the second-best-performing city in the U.S., up from its third-place ranking the previous year.
• Much of this is thanks to the city’s strong economic growth, driven by high wages, abundant job opportunities that attract top talent, reasonable living costs, a booming tech sector, and the proximity to prestigious universities like Duke, University of North Carolina, and Nort Carolina State.
• The Raleigh metro area has been on a roll lately. In the second quarter of 2024, it led the state in employment growth, with a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year.
• Raleigh’s average unemployment rate was just 3.2% that quarter, lower than the state (3.6%) and national (3.8%) averages.

• Raleigh is now the third fastest-growing big city in the U.S. Between 2022 and 2023, its population jumped by 1.9%, trailing Atlanta, Georgia, and Fort Worth, Texas.
• The Triangle region is booming, with places like Fuquay-Varina, Garner, and Durham all seeing impressive population gains.

• The Raleigh, North Carolina housing market has been red-hot. As of last November, the median home sold price in Raleigh was $448,424, up 7.7% from the year before.
• Homes are selling faster than ever, typically going off the market in 29 days.
• Despite a slight uptick in inventory, it’s still a seller’s market, with about 2.8 months’ worth of homes available (as of October).

Dubbed a ‘supernova market,’ Raleigh-Durham is one of the country’s hottest real estate markets. With the population expected to grow 8% in the next five years, it’s one of the few markets in the U.S. that’s still considered a seller’s market. The trend of rising home prices is set to continue through 2025 as more people flock to the area.

Home sales rose nearly 18% in October, and listings rose over 38%. Even with more houses on the market, they’re flying off the shelves because the housing supply is still low. In October, less than three months (2.8 months) of supply was available, suggesting prices will continue to rise in 2025.

The future looks bright for the Raleigh, North Carolina, housing market thanks to consistent job opportunities and an increasing population. However, with most jobs tied to specific industries (unlike the well-diversified Charlotte market), there might be a few economic challenges. Strong demand for housing in the area, coupled with infrastructure improvements like the planned commuter rail system, will keep Raleigh’s real estate market thriving.

The Raleigh housing market has way more homes and condos for sale than there used to be. And builders are trying to keep up with demand. In October, Raleigh saw a 38.4% increase in active listings compared to last year. But most of these were townhouses or condo listings. Townhouse-condo inventory grew by 38.9% year-over-year, while single-family home inventory only rose by 4.5%.

Inventory has also risen, but its effect on prices isn’t uniform across the Triangle area. Durham, for example, is described as a “very competitive” market. But prices here have slightly decreased due to increased inventory. On the other hand, Chapel Hill has seen its median sale price rise by 34.2% YOY to $622,500 despite having almost the same market fundamentals.

Raleigh’s housing inventory will likely increase next year as new developments are completed. Even with the increase, demand will likely outpace supply.

The Raleigh, North Carolina housing market will gain roughly 9,228 new apartments by the end of 2024. This construction boom has increased vacancies, slightly lowering rents for new leases in existing apartment buildings. Due to new apartment construction, Raleigh’s rents fell significantly in 2023 and early 2024.

Although rents rose in Q2 and Q3 2024, the increased supply has generally stabilized or lowered them. For example, the median rent is now $1,695, down 8% from last summer but slightly up from the previous quarter.

In 2025, the rental market may stabilize or see minor adjustments. The occupancy rate, which dropped 20 basis points year-over-year to 93.8% in August 2024, may also stabilize or rebound slightly as new infrastructure projects and economic growth attract renters.

Raleigh’s rental market remains highly competitive despite the influx of new apartments, and rents are expected to remain high. With housing prices soaring, more and more people are turning to renting in Raleigh, which puts more pressure on the rental market.

Apart from that, inventory is still generally low. For example, Wake County has a deficit of 65,000 housing units, driving high rent demand. There aren’t many affordable houses, and developers must battle zoning constraints, so strong rental demand might persist into 2025.

Some large-scale developments could further boost rental demand. One is the $1 billion Entertainment District by Gale Force Sports, Entertainment, and Pacific Elm Properties.

The housing market in North Carolina shows several positive trends that are attractive real estate investors like a strong job market, a growing population, robust housing demand, and increasing home values. As the data shows, the trends may differ slightly per city or county, so do your due diligence.

If you are considering investing in real estate in North Carlolina, join RealWealth today! Membership is 100% free and gives you access to all of our resources, including the best places to invest in North Carolina, sample property pro formas, and direct connections to the turnkey property team we work with in the Tar Heel State.