Two years of price corrections haven’t slowed Texas down. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly 391,243 people moved here last year. That kind of population growth keeps housing demand high. As we break down Texas housing market predictions for 2026 and 2027, one theme emerges clearly: this is a normalizing market, one that actually works better for investors than the frenzied years of 2021 and 2022.

In this article, we cover statewide trends and detailed forecasts for four key markets: Dallas and North Texas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Houston. Here’s what the data shows:

• Inventory is improving. Texas entered 2026 with approximately 128,100 active listings statewide, 13.7% above the prior year, giving buyers more negotiating power and investors more time to evaluate deals.
• Job growth is returning. Texas added 132,500 jobs in 2025, outpacing the national average. The Dallas Fed forecasts 1.1% employment growth in 2026, which is roughly 155,000 new jobs, led by construction, transportation, data centers, AI, and health sectors.
• Population still growing fast. Texas ranked fourth in the nation for population growth between July 2024 and July 2025, reaching 31.7 million with 391,243 new residents in a single year.
• Rental market stabilizing. Single-family rents (SFR) are holding steadier than multifamily, with statewide SFR rents trending around $2,300 per month heading into 2026.

Our Texas housing market predictions are based on data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center, the Dallas Fed, Redfin, Zillow, Texas REALTORS, and others. These are informed forecasts, not guarantees. Local conditions vary significantly across Texas metros.

Texas Housing Market Predications & Trends Influencing Growth

Before we get into individual markets, let’s look at what’s driving the Texas housing market as a whole. These are the fundamentals that matter most for investors making decisions in 2026 and 2027.

Population growth and migration patterns

Texas added more new residents than any other state in 2025. The U.S. Census Bureau puts that number at 391,243, bringing the state’s total population to 31.7 million. That’s nearly 400,000 people who need somewhere to live.

Growth did slow compared to the pandemic peak. Net domestic migration dropped to 67,000 in 2025, down from 86,000 in 2024. Immigration enforcement also cut international migration to Texas nearly in half, from 355,000 to 167,000. But even at a slower pace, Texas ranked fourth nationally in percentage growth at 1.2%, according to the Texas Tribune.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The biggest migration corridor into Texas remains California, followed by Illinois, New York, and Michigan, according to Allied Van Lines. People are leaving high-cost states and finding that Texas, with no state income tax and home prices well below coastal markets, still makes financial sense. Investors already active in Florida, North Carolina, or Georgia will recognize the same underlying demand story: people following jobs and affordability to Sun Belt and Southeast markets.

Employment and economic indicators

Texas ended 2025 with 132,500 non-farm jobs added for the year, according to the Texas Governor’s Office, more than any other state. But the honest picture is more nuanced. The Dallas Fed tracks payroll employment differently and puts net job growth at just 10,700 for the year, the weakest showing in over two decades. Tighter immigration policies, policy uncertainty, and a tech-sector slowdown all played a role.

The 2026 outlook is better. The Dallas Fed projects 1.1% employment growth this year, roughly 155,000 new jobs, led by data center construction, AI-related activity, and an easing tax environment. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, reinstated 100% bonus depreciation, giving businesses more incentive to invest and expand. Dallas added an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 jobs in the past year. Houston projects 30,900 new jobs in 2026 alone.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Home Prices Trends

Prices softened across most Texas metros in 2025. The statewide median ended the year at around $330,000, down 0.7% year-over-year in December, according to TRERC via Republic Title. Austin and San Antonio saw the steepest declines at -2.9% and -1.9%, respectively. Dallas posted modest declines for nine straight months. Fort Worth held flat. Houston slipped 0.6%.

For investors, this is actually good timing. TRERC projects a 1.3% price increase statewide in 2026, bringing the median to around $334,000 as rates ease and demand recovers. More than two-thirds of closed sales in late 2025 involved seller price cuts of 3% or more, with the average reduction running 7.4%. That’s negotiating leverage investors haven’t seen in Texas since before the pandemic.

Inventory & Construction trends

Texas entered 2026 with 128,100 active listings statewide, up 13.7% year-over-year. Months of supply sat around 5.2 in November 2025, according to TRERC’s Housing Insight data, well above the state’s balanced range of 3 to 4 months and above the national average. Buyers have more options and more room to negotiate than they’ve had in years.

Builders are responding by pulling back on residential construction. Single-family permits in Texas fell 10.3% between January and October 2025, outpacing the national decline of 7%. DFW builders started 17.7% fewer homes year-over-year in Q4 2025. That matters for investors. The less new construction there is today, the faster today’s inventory gets absorbed, which sets up a tighter supply and stronger rents heading into 2027.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

One of the biggest economic stories in Texas right now is data center construction. While overall construction activity has remained relatively flat, data center construction in Texas reached $10.8 billion in 2025, accounting for 5.7% of total statewide construction activity, according to Dodge Construction data analyzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. That’s a near-vertical climb since 2022, and it’s not slowing down. This boom is one of the primary reasons the Dallas Fed expects job growth to accelerate in 2026. It’s also driving economic expansion north of Dallas into communities like Sherman and Denison, markets we’ll cover in detail in the next section.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Rental Market Trends

Single-family rentals are holding up better than multifamily across all Texas markets. Statewide SFR rents were trending toward $2,300 per month at year-end 2025, according to TRERC. Multifamily rents stayed flat to slightly negative as new apartment supply worked through the system. TRERC projects apartment deliveries to fall below 40,000 units statewide through summer 2026, down sharply from prior years, which should stabilize multifamily and give single family rental investors a continued edge on the rental side.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

With mortgage interest rates dipping, we’re all watching to see if this will spark a flurry of buyers. However, even if mortgage rates fall below 6%, the overall impact on Texas home prices is expected to be modest.

Policy & External Factors Affecting Real Estate

In 2025, Texas made some of the most significant pro-housing policy moves in decades. Governor Abbott signed four housing reform bills into law in June, all effective September 1, 2025.

• SB 15 limits minimum lot sizes to 3,000 square feet in larger Texas cities, opening the door to more starter homes, townhomes, duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes in high-demand areas.
• SB 840 allows multifamily and mixed-use development by right in commercially zoned areas, meaning developers can build without rezoning, public hearings, or city council votes.
• SB 2477 fast-tracks conversions of vacant office buildings into housing.

Together, these laws target a statewide housing shortage estimated at over 300,000 units. The long-term effect for investors is more housing supply, downward pressure on entry-level prices, and stronger rental demand as more people can live in major Texas metros.

A few other factors are worth keeping on your radar heading into 2026.

• The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, reinstated 100% bonus depreciation, a direct tax benefit for real estate investors buying in 2026.
• The FIFA World Cup comes to Texas in 2026, which should provide a short-term economic lift across Dallas, Houston, and other host cities.

On the other side of the ledger, property insurance costs remain a real drag on investor returns; factor that into your underwriting before you buy. Tighter immigration enforcement has reduced the construction labor pool, which may further slow new housing supply, another factor supporting long-term rents.

Dallas and North Texas Housing Market Predictions 2026-2027

Now that we’re up to speed on the current trends in the Texas real estate market as a whole, let’s look at what’s expected for Dallas, one of Texas’s fastest-growing metros. You’ll find our Dallas real estate market forecast for 2026 below.

Dallas Real Estate Market Forecast for 2026 & 2027

Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is the fourth-largest metro in the country and one of the most economically diversified. According to a CBRE analysis, Dallas ranked #1 in the nation for corporate headquarters relocations from 2018 to 2024, attracting 100 new corporate headquarters, more than any other metro in the country. The metro added 34,100 jobs year-over-year through September 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, led by healthcare, education, and government. It’s now the third-largest employment base in the country, trailing only New York and Los Angeles.

Prices corrected in 2025; that’s the honest picture. But the fundamentals never left. Dallas is a buy-and-hold market, and 2026 is shaping up to be one of the better entry points in years. If you plan to flip houses, be sure to double-check your numbers.

1. A rare buying window in one of America’s strongest employment markets

Dallas home prices softened across most submarkets through 2025. Zillow puts the current average home value in the DFW metro at $336,591, up .2% year-over-year. Fort Worth and the more affordable suburban submarkets held essentially flat through December, according to TRERC via Republic Title.

The 2026 outlook is stabilization, not further decline. Most local forecasters expect 2-3% appreciation to return in the second half of 2026 as mortgage rates ease and pent-up demand eases. TRERC’s statewide forecast calls for modest price recovery as interest rates ease toward the 6% range. For investors, that means more time to evaluate, more seller flexibility, and better entry prices than anything we’ve seen since before the pandemic.

2. SFR demand holding strong as apartments absorb new supply

Apartment rents in Dallas softened in 2025 as new supply worked through the market. RentCafe puts the average Dallas apartment rent at $1,582, down slightly compared to last year. Zillow puts the broader all-property average at $1,950, describing the market as “warm” with rents near the national average.

That said, the new construction pipeline has dropped sharply. Single-family permits in Texas fell 10.3% between January and October 2025, according to HousingWire, and DFW builders started 17.7% fewer homes year-over-year in Q4 2025. That sets up a tighter supply picture heading into 2026 and 2027.

Single-family rentals are outperforming apartments across the DFW metro. High mortgage rates are keeping more households in the rental market longer, and SFR demand is holding up well in established suburbs like Plano, McKinney, Frisco, and Allen. For investors in the right suburban submarkets, single family rental cash flow in the DFW metro is more achievable today than it’s been in several years.

North of Dallas, something bigger is happening — Silicon Prairie is expanding. Texas Instruments and GlobalWafers announced plans to invest over $30 billion in advanced semiconductor fabrication plants in Sherman, and the first plant is now operational. When all of the plants are fully running, over 5,000 new jobs will have been created with a median income of over $100,000, according to HousingWire. That’s $500 million in new annual income flowing into Grayson County.

TRERC’s Winter 2026 Housing report highlights the Sherman-Denison MSA as one of the strongest-performing Texas markets since 2020, with home prices up nearly 50%, second only to the broader DFW metro in the state. The median home price in Sherman-Denison sits around $315,000, with only a modest 2% correction from the peak compared to DFW’s steeper correction. That price resilience reflects real underlying demand, not speculation.

Denison, about 11 miles north of Sherman, offers its own appeal. A revitalized downtown with over 200 locally owned businesses, and the $6 billion Preston Harbor development on Lake Texoma, 7,500 luxury homes, resort hotels, a marina, and commercial amenities, is attracting buyers who want the Texas lifestyle without Dallas price tags, according to HousingWire.

Greenville, southwest of Sherman in Hunt County, offers another affordable entry point into this growth corridor with easy access to the broader DFW employment base.

One note of transparency: the full impact of the semiconductor plants on housing hasn’t hit yet. Only about 20% of the plants were operational as of mid-2025. The housing demand story in Sherman-Denison is a 2026-2028 play, not a 2025 story. Patient investors who get in ahead of the job ramp-up are positioning for the upside. Those looking for immediate cash flow should be realistic about current rent levels, which still reflect a smaller-city market. This is a compelling long-term investment strategy.

Fort Worth, Texas Housing Market Predictions 2026-2027

Fort Worth may not get the headlines Dallas does, but investors who look closely tend to like what they find. The city crossed the one-million population mark in 2024, making it the 13th-largest city in the country according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And unlike Dallas, it’s still affordable. Redfin puts the median sale price at $340,000, 12% below the national average. That entry point is hard to find in a city this size.

The economy here isn’t a one-trick pony either. American Airlines, BNSF Railway, Lockheed Martin, and Bell Textron all anchor the Fort Worth employment base. Defense, aerospace, manufacturing, logistics, and healthcare keep the job market diversified and resilient. The Fort Worth-Arlington division accounts for 28% of total DFW metro employment (1.2 million jobs) according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Fort Worth held up better than Dallas through the 2025 correction. TRERC via Republic Title noted the Fort Worth-Arlington-Grapevine market area remained essentially flat through December 2025, one of the few Texas metros that didn’t post meaningful year-over-year price declines. Redfin shows the median sale price at $340,000, up 1.5% year-over-year as of February 2026. Zillow puts the typical home value lower at $295,822, down 3.1% over the past year. The two figures reflect different measurement methodologies, but both point to a market holding steadier than most of Texas.

The Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors reported the city median at $318,495 through November 2025. Homes are taking 55-75 days to sell, and the months of supply sit at 4.2, a more balanced territory, with homes selling at 97.8% of the asking price, according to Houzeo. Buyers have some negotiating room here, but it’s not a distressed market. Well-priced homes still move.

RentCafe puts the average Fort Worth apartment rent at $1,432. Fort Worth’s rents run about 7.9% below Dallas, which matters for investors. More affordable rents mean a deeper tenant pool and lower vacancy risk. Demand is holding up as elevated mortgage rates keep more households renting longer, and that trend isn’t reversing quickly at current rate levels.

The demand for single-family rental properties is particularly strong in Fort Worth’s suburban corridors, where families want space and good school districts without the price premium of northern Dallas suburbs. Build-to-rent is also active here, especially in the south Fort Worth corridor, a signal of where institutional money sees long-term tenant demand going. For investors, that’s a useful leading indicator.

San Antonio, Texas Housing Market Predictions 2026-2027

San Antonio is called “Military City, USA” for a good reason. Joint Base San Antonio directly employs more than 82,000 people, with a combined direct and indirect employment impact of over 211,000. Military families, federal contractors, and defense workers all maintain rental demand that doesn’t move with economic cycles. That’s exactly what long-term investors want to see.

The economy goes well beyond the base, too. USAA, H-E-B, Valero Energy, and Whataburger are all headquartered here. Toyota runs a major manufacturing plant on the south side of the city. JCB is opening a 720,000-square-foot factory in 2026, expected to create 1,500 jobs over five years, according to the Dallas Fed’s San Antonio economic profile. Cybersecurity is a growing sector, anchored by the Air Force’s Cyber and Intelligence Commands and the NSA’s Texas Cryptologic Center. The metro added 13,000 jobs in 2025, with a 1.1% growth rate, according to Workforce Solutions Alamo, and unemployment at 3.7% in December, below both the state and national averages.

San Antonio went through a reset in 2025. Home prices moderated, inventory increased, and homes took longer to sell than in prior years. For patient investors, that shift created an opening. Entry prices are more reasonable, competition is lower, and sellers are negotiating. That’s a better buying environment than San Antonio has offered since before the pandemic.

San Antonio’s median sale price sits around 20% below the national average, according to Redfin, at $260,000 in February 2026, up 4% year-over-year, an early sign the market is stabilizing. Zillow puts the average home value at $247,132, down 2.9% over the past year. TRERC via Republic Title noted prices declined 1.9% year-over-year in December 2025, reflecting the broader market reset that played out across Texas.

Inventory is up 15-18% year-over-year heading into spring 2026, homes are averaging 82-98 days on market, and sellers are offering concessions. For investors, that’s negotiating leverage you haven’t had here in years. Move carefully, underwrite conservatively, and the entry prices work.

Military families, healthcare workers, university students, and government contractors make up a tenant base that rents consistently and moves less than average. Zillow puts the average rent across all property types in San Antonio at $1,633. RentCafe puts the apartment average lower at $1,256, down 2.52% over the past year, reflecting the multifamily oversupply that’s been working through the market. For single family rental property investors, that apartment softness is largely separate from the single-family picture, where demand from military and healthcare households has stayed more consistent.

Multifamily supply ran heavy in 2024 and 2025, pushing apartment rents down and forcing landlords to offer free months and reduced deposits to fill units. That pipeline is thinning as we head into 2026. For SFR investors, the apartment oversupply is largely a separate story; single-family demand stayed resilient throughout. And with San Antonio’s cost of living running 9% below the national average, tenants have strong reasons to stay put.

Houston, Texas Housing Market Predictions 2026-2027

Houston is the energy capital of the world, and that title comes with real economic staying power. The metro is home to 26 Fortune 500 companies, the largest port in the United States, and nearly 200,000 people employed in the energy sector alone, according to the Greater Houston Partnership. It’s also one of the youngest major metros in the country, adding nearly 200,000 new residents in 2024. Healthcare, technology, aerospace, and renewable energy are all growing alongside the traditional oil and gas base, which means the economy isn’t as oil-dependent as it used to be.

The Greater Houston Partnership forecasts 30,900 new jobs in 2026, led by healthcare, which alone is expected to account for nearly half of all new positions. Global companies such as Eli Lilly, Foxconn, and Inventec have recently committed to Houston, signaling continued corporate confidence in the market. The metro is on track to reach a record 3.5 million total jobs by year-end 2026.

Of all the major Texas metros, Houston is holding up the best on pricing. It didn’t experience the same vertical price spike that Austin and Dallas did during the pandemic years, so it didn’t have as far to fall. That makes it one of the more straightforward underwriting stories in Texas right now.

Houston Real Estate Market Forecast for 2026 & 2027

1. A resilient market holding steady while the rest of Texas corrects

Redfin puts Houston’s median sale price at $342,000 in February 2026, with little fluctuation year-over-year, making it one of the most stable among major Texas metros. Zillow puts the average home value at $264,789, down just 0.4% over the past year. Houston’s median is roughly 20% below the national average, and its cost of living is 7% below the national average. That affordability keeps demand consistent across multiple income levels for buyers and renters.

According to the Houston Association of Realtors, the market is moving into a more balanced environment in 2026. Homes are averaging 74 days on market, up from 58 days last year, giving buyers more time and options. Inventory is higher than in prior years, which is keeping a lid on price appreciation. Most forecasts point to modest price growth of 3-5% through 2026 as mortgage rates ease and pent-up demand works through the market.

2. Energy and healthcare workforce drives steady SFR demand

RentCafe puts the average Houston apartment rent at $1,346, down .95% from last year. Zillow puts the all-property average, including single-family homes, at $1,900, up $15 from last year. Apartment rents have softened as new supply worked through the market, but that pipeline is thinning heading into 2026. Single-family rentals have held up better throughout as the demand from Houston’s large healthcare and energy workforce keeps SFR occupancy steady in the suburban corridors where most investors are buying.

Worth noting for 2026: the World Cup comes to Houston this summer. That’s a short-term economic lift for the market, with increased demand for short-term and furnished rentals around the event. It’s not a long-term investment strategy on its own, but it’s a positive signal for the market’s overall vitality heading into the second half of the year.

One practical note for Houston investors: property insurance costs are higher in Texas, and Houston’s flood risk profile means investors need to carefully factor it into their numbers before they buy.

Now that you’ve seen some of the top Texas housing market predictions for 2026 and 2027, check out the five best places to buy investment property in Texas today and the trends and forecasts for the US real estate market for the next five years.

Final Thoughts on Texas Housing Market Predictions for 2026 and 2027

Four markets, four different stories, but the same underlying factors. Texas keeps adding people, jobs, and corporate headquarters at a pace most states can’t match. And right now, entry prices across all four of the markets we covered are more reasonable than they’ve been in years.

The investors who do well in a market like this are the ones who move deliberately, underwrite conservatively, and buy in markets with durable employment anchors. Texas has those in abundance, including military bases, Fortune 500 headquarters, semiconductor plants, energy infrastructure, and one of the country’s fastest-growing healthcare sectors.

If you’re thinking about investing in Texas, our guide to out-of-state real estate investing is a good place to start. And if you want to understand how to evaluate a market before you buy, check out how to do a real estate market analysis like an expert investor.