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Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2023, 2024 & Beyond

Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2023, 2024 & Beyond

Rich Fettke

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In this article, we’ll delve into the key trends and factors that will shape the future of Florida’s real estate landscape, focusing on Florida housing market predictions for 2023, 2024, and beyond. We’ll cover the following trends:

  • Projected growth in home prices and sales
  • Emerging markets and hotspots within Florida
  • The impact of population growth and migration trends on Florida’s real estate market
  • Economic factors influencing the housing market in Florida

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, a seasoned investor, or a real estate professional, understanding these trends is crucial for making informed decisions in the ever-changing Florida housing market. Our in-depth analysis will help you stay ahead of the curve and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

We conducted extensive research using authoritative sources such as government reports, industry publications, and expert opinions. We’ve analyzed the data to identify the key factors that will shape Florida’s housing market, ensuring that you’re equipped with the knowledge you need to succeed in this dynamic and competitive environment.

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The Sunshine State is home to over 22 million people—a number that is growing every day. In fact, Florida is the fastest-growing state in the country, adding an average of 1,000 people per day.

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Just what is driving this growth? And why are more and more people flocking to Florida? The answers can be found in the state’s beautiful weather, which offers 300 days of sunshine per year. But there’s more to this sunny state than its weather. Before we consider pertinent Florida housing market predictions for 2023 and 2024, here is an overview of the factors currently influencing the Florida housing market.

Population growth and migration patterns

Population growth and migration patterns are two of the most important factors influencing the housing market. As the population grows, so does the demand for housing. This can lead to higher property prices and rental rates, as well as a potential shortage of housing supply.

The impact of population growth on the housing market is most pronounced in areas with strong job growth. This is because people are more likely to move to areas where there are good job opportunities. As a result, housing demand in these areas can outstrip the supply, leading to higher prices.

Florida’s population increased by 1.9% between 2021 and 2022, surpassing Idaho, which was the fastest-growing state the previous year.

Florida Housing Market Predictions - Population Change 1946 to 2022

Image Source: Census.Gov

The state’s population growth was fueled by a net influx of 3.1 million people during the previous decade.

The state is a major center for tourism, agriculture, and technology—and home to a growing number of Fortune 500 companies (including Walt Disney World Resort). Between 2010 and 2021, Florida’s population grew from 18.8 million to 21.7 million people—an increase of 15.6%.

However, these new residents were not spread evenly across the state’s 67 counties. Instead, they congregated in just a handful of counties. According to an analysis by the Tampa Bay Times, a third of Florida’s new residents wound up in just five counties: Orange, Hillsborough, Lee, Polk, and Palm Beach. These five counties are all located in the state’s southeastern region, known for its warm weather and beaches.

Florida’s growth is largely fueled by migration. Over the last two years, 616,000 new residents have come to Florida from other parts of the country, and 175,000 from other countries. In fact, without migration, Florida would not have grown at all. Its 567,881 deaths exceeded its 478,834 births. And according to projections, by 2030 Florida will have more than 25 million residents.

Employment and economic indicators

Florida’s economy continues to rebound strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP growth of 4% in 2022. This marks the third consecutive year of growth for the state’s economy, which has now recovered all of the ground it lost during the pandemic.
Annual percent change in the real gross domestic product of Florida in the United States from 2000 to 2022
Annual percent change in the real gross domestic product of Florida in the United States from 2000 to 2022

Image Source: Statista.com

Florida now has the third highest number of new jobs. In 2022, Florida had 9,578,500 jobs—2,400 more than New York’s 9,476,100 jobs. This is an indication that Florida’s job market is growing rapidly and outpacing other states.

Florida’s unemployment rate is currently 2.6%, while the national unemployment rate is 3.4%. While Florida’s economy is currently thriving, some economists are predicting a mild recession starting in the fourth quarter of 2023. UCF economist Sean Snaith forecasts that between 2023 and 2026:

  • The “Pasta Bowl Recession” will have a slow but steady impact on Florida’s labor market. There will not be as many job losses or as high of an unemployment rate as in previous recessions, but the recession will still be felt in the workforce.
  • Florida’s economy, measured by the Real Gross State Product, will grow at an average annual rate of just 0.6% from 2023 to 2026. This is below the national average, but Florida’s growth will still be 0.3 percentage points higher than the national rate.
  • Labor force growth in Florida will average 0.8% from 2023 to 2026. This is below the 3% growth rate seen in 2022, but labor force growth is expected to pick up again in 2025 and 2026.

These forecasts suggest that Florida’s economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. The recession is expected to have a mild impact on the labor market, but Florida’s economy is still expected to outperform the national average.

Real estate development and construction trends

Florida is experiencing rapid growth in residential construction, and that’s great news for the state’s housing market. The latest data from Point2 Homes shows that Florida issued more than 212,000 building permits in 2022, ranking second in the country behind Texas. California came in third. Of the permits issued in Florida, 134,000 were for single-family units. The study found that the number of building permits issued in Florida increased by 38% from 2019 to 2022.

Point2Homes Permits Chart

Image Source: Point2homes.com

In the Tampa Bay metro area, 30,000 building permits were issued in 2022, up 21% from the previous year – one of the biggest year-over-year increases in the nation. The Orlando metro area closely follows behind Tampa. Miami-Fort Lauderdale is the only major metro area in the state seeing a decline in permitting, down nearly 22%.

Yet, construction of new homes is expected to be slow in 2023 because of the limited supply of labor and materials. Wait times for newly built homes can be up to 12 months, versus the normal 7 – 9 month build time from initial contract to close.

Florida’s housing market is expected to remain strong in 2023 and 2024, with continued demand for homes and steady price growth. However, the market is likely to stabilize as the growth rate slows down, which may lead to more balanced conditions between 2026-2027.

Government policies and regulations affecting real estate

Local, regional and national policies affect the housing market in many ways. For example, zoning regulations set where housing may be built; building codes specify how buildings must be constructed; and incentives for affordable housing or sustainable development encourage certain types of development.

Florida has enacted a number of policies that encourage investment in the state’s real estate market. One example is the “Live Local Act,” which preempts local zoning laws and allows developers to build units in commercial and industrial areas so long as 40% of them are affordable. It also strips local governments of their power to enact rent control measures and preempts local laws regarding density and building heights in certain circumstances.

Orlando, Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023 & 2024

Now let’s delve into the Florida housing market predictions for Orlando and explore the trends, forecasts and opportunities that lie ahead.

Overview of the Orlando metro area

With a population of over 2 million people and a robust economy, the Orlando metro area is one of the biggest in Florida. Orlando is home to some of the most famous tourist attractions in the world, including Walt Disney World Resort, Universal Studios, and SeaWorld. Each year, these attractions draw millions of visitors from all over the globe. In addition to tourism, Orlando is also home to a number of other industries, including healthcare and technology. This diversity of industries helps to create a strong economy that attracts both homeowners and investors.

Tourism is one of Orlando’s most important industries.. Over half of all sales tax revenue comes from tourists, and 12 of the top 15 property tax owners are in the tourism industry. Tourists contribute tens of millions of dollars each month in Tourist Development Tax (TDT), which funds many arts, sport centers and cultural organizations throughout Orange County (where Orlando is located).

Orlando’s largest employer is the world-famous Walt Disney World Resort. But the city is also home to a thriving healthcare industry, led by two major players: AdventHealth and Orlando Health.

AdventHealth is the second largest employer in central Florida, with more than 20 hospitals and emergency rooms and 3,400+ physicians. It is a faith-based organization founded in 1908. Orlando Health is the third largest employer in central Florida. It has 16 hospitals and emergency rooms, 3,000+ physicians on staff and a variety of other free standing offices and medical facilities.

Orlando’s housing market is booming, with people from all over the country and the world flocking to the city for its many attractions, including its world-renowned theme parks, beautiful beaches, and warm climate. The city’s economy is also thriving, with a low unemployment rate and a growing number of businesses. As a result, Orlando is one of the most desirable places to live and invest in real estate in the United States.

Orlando market predictions for 2023, 2024 & beyond

1 – Property prices

Despite rising housing inventory, Orlando’s housing market remains hot

Orlando’s housing inventory in April 2023 (5,148) was 92.8% higher than April 2022, when it was recorded at only 2,670 homes. This meant there were 1.86 months worth of homes available for sale, up from 1.72 months in March.

Despite the increase, demand still exceeds the supply of homes for sale. A balanced market has 5.5 – 6 months’ supply, so Orlando still experiences a lack of homes for sale relative to demand.
Orlando’s economy is booming, and with housing supply unable to keep up with demand, the city is poised to remain a hot market in 2023 and 2024.

Year-over-year sales will trend downward until mortgage rates stabilize

The Orlando real estate market is showing signs of a slowdown. Sales have fallen off significantly, and the average days on market increased by 116%.

The first quarter of 2023 showed a 27% decline in single family home closed sales from the previous year. Greater Orlando area overall home sales in April 2023 were 27.2% lower than April 2022 when there were 3,800 sales. On a month-to-month basis, sales fell 5.8% from March to April. April saw 2,766 sales, down from 2,936 sales in March.

The average number of days homes spent on the market (DOM) was 52 in April, down from 57 in March. This is 116.7% higher than in April 2022 when the average DOM was 24.

All these point to declining demand for Orlando homes for sale. That’s because mortgage rates have increased by 131% since the first quarter of 2022. Many homebuyers and investors are waiting for mortgage rates to fall below 5% before re-entering the market.

Property prices are expected to remain fairly stable

Orlando’s housing market has remained resilient in the past year, despite economic headwinds. While other markets across the country have seen steep declines in values, Orlando’s housing market remains stable thanks to strong demand for properties, which continues to outpace the available supply.

In fact, the median price of homes in Orlando was $370,000 in April 2023–the same as recorded in April 2022 according to Orlando Realtors’ housing market narrative.

The housing market in Orlando has remained relatively stable compared to other U.S. cities, according to a recent Redfin report: 1.2% of homes in Orlando have lower estimated monthly housing payments than they had a year ago–the lowest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Austin had the highest share of homes with lower year-over-year estimated monthly payments at 25.8%.

Orlando is expected to add more than 1,500 people to the region every week, reaching a population of 5.2 million by 2030. This growth rate combined with slow housing construction rates will keep prices relatively stable in Orlando and make it an attractive place for investors looking for good value and potential appreciation.

2 – Rental rates

Rents will continue to increase

Over the past year, the average cost to rent a home or apartment in Florida has increased by 11.82 percent The statewide average now stands at $2,200 per month. Orlando had the highest rent increase among Florida’s four major metro areas in April 2023. The city saw a 2.1% rise month-over-month.

With mortgage rates remaining high and home prices steady, would-be home buyers are likely to continue renting. Strong rental demand will keep rents high.

Some form of rent control could come into play in Orange County

On Nov. 8 2022, voters in Orange County approved a proposal to implement a rent control ordinance, though legal challenges mean that those results will not be certified immediately.

If approved, the proposal introduced by Orange County Commissioner Emily Bonilla would cap rent increases at the same percentage as the Consumer Price Index.

Increasing multifamily construction will cause a big drop in rent growth

Miami and Orlando, two of Florida’s top rent growth markets, are experiencing historic levels of construction. According to CoStar, Orlando has 26,352 units underway, while Miami has 29,753 units under construction.

Over the past nine months, rent growth has dropped precipitously in both markets. In December 2022, Miami rents increased by 6.8% year-over-year. By March 2023, that rate had slowed to 3.8%. Orlando rents increased by 5.8% in December 2022. By the end of March 2023, that rate had slowed to 2.9%.

A few Orlando neighborhoods to consider investing in

1 – Four Corners

Four Corners is a growing suburban community located at the intersection of four counties—Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Polk—in the Orlando metropolitan area, Florida. This unique area offers a comfortable and relaxed lifestyle, with a variety of housing options, shopping centers, and dining establishments. Known for its natural beauty and proximity to world-class theme parks like Walt Disney World and Universal Studios, Four Corners attracts families, retirees, and tourists alike. With easy access to major highways, residents can enjoy the best of both worlds: tranquility and convenience to the bustling city of Orlando.

2 – Oviedo

Oviedo is a charming suburban city located in the northeastern part of the Orlando metropolitan area, Florida. Known for its friendly atmosphere and strong sense of community, Oviedo offers a high quality of life with excellent schools, numerous parks, and recreational facilities. The city has a rich history and a distinctive blend of rural and modern living. It features a mix of spacious residential neighborhoods and a beautiful historic downtown area. With its close proximity to the University of Central Florida and easy access to Orlando’s attractions, Oviedo is an ideal place for families, professionals, and students to call home.

3 – Downtown Orlando

Downtown Orlando is the vibrant heart of Orlando, Florida, known for its bustling urban atmosphere and diverse array of entertainment, dining, and cultural options. As the central business district, it boasts a thriving economy with numerous office buildings, hotels, and high-rise condominiums. Downtown Orlando is home to significant landmarks such as Lake Eola Park, the Amway Center, and the Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts. With its lively nightlife scene, various museums, and easy access to public transportation, Downtown Orlando offers an exciting and dynamic lifestyle for residents, professionals, and visitors alike.

To view Sample Investment Properties in Orlando starting at $200k, sign up for your free RealWealth membership.

Jacksonville, Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023 & 2024

Let’s consider the Jacksonville housing market and some pertinent trends and predictions for 2023, 2024 and beyond.

Overview of the Jacksonville metro area

Jacksonville, Florida is one of the oldest cities in Florida, founded in 1562 by Spanish explorers. It is located on the Atlantic coastline and has a population of over 860,000 people.

Jacksonville has a rich history that includes Civil War history, Civil Rights history and Southern rock music history. The downtown area is filled with architectural gems from the early 1900s.

Jacksonville is also home to several military bases and the nearby Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay. These bases together make up the third largest military presence in the United States. The military presence plays a significant role in Jacksonville’s economy; it supports banking, insurance and logistics services as well as tourism (golf is a major draw for visitors).

Jacksonville’s house prices have risen at an average of 4.6% per year since 1982–25% more than comparable cash flow markets like Dallas, Kansas City, Memphis and Cleveland–and they’re expected to continue rising at an average rate of 4% through 2021.

Jacksonville market predictions for 2023, 2024 & beyond

1 – Property prices

Home sales will rise as prices stabilize

According to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors, the median price for a single-family home in March 2023 was $363,990, an increase of 0.7% from February and down 2.2% from a year ago.

In March 2023, across Northeast Florida, Florida, closed sales increased 45.2% compared to February. This could be because in March, homes in Northeast Florida cities like Jacksonville sold at a median difference of 6.1% below their list price.

As home prices decline, more people are entering the market and this trend is expected to continue into 2024

Year-over-year median prices will fall until the market becomes balanced

The Jacksonville housing market is expected to see a decline in median prices until the market becomes balanced.

Home prices in Jacksonville have fallen 9.9% from their peak in July 2022. They have dropped in five of the six months from August 2022 to January 2023. The median price of a single-family home was $360,000 in January 2023, a decline of 2.9% from December 2022.

As a result of these monthly price declines, the Northeast Florida region’s home affordability index increased from a low of 67 in October to 76 in January. An index of 100 would indicate that the average family has the income needed to afford a typical mortgage.

2 – Rental rates

Rents will normalize, declining marginally year-over-year

According to data from Redfin, the Jacksonville metro area was one of 14 nationwide where the price for a new lease declined in the year between December 2021 and December 2022.

As of March 2023, the average rent for a studio apartment in Jacksonville decreased by 2% YOY to $1,107, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment decreased by 1% to $1,300, and the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment increased by 2% to $1,450.

But while rent growth in Jacksonville is slowing down for new leases, renewal rents are rising faster than the national average. As of September 2022, new leases in Jacksonville were priced 10.9% higher than rates for the previous resident, which is in line with the national average. However, renewal rents in Jacksonville were priced 13.9% above previous rates, well ahead of the national normal of 10.9%.

A few Jacksonville neighborhoods to consider investing in

1 – Highlands

Highlands is a residential neighborhood in northeast Jacksonville, Florida. Known for its affordable housing, diverse community, and easy access to the city’s amenities, Highlands offers a comfortable suburban lifestyle for its residents. The area features several parks, including Ray Greene Park and Sheffield Regional Park, providing ample opportunities for outdoor recreation. With its convenient location near major highways and the Jacksonville International Airport, Highlands is an attractive option for those seeking a balance between city life and suburban tranquility.

2 – Northside

Northside is a sprawling, diverse neighborhood located in the northern part of Jacksonville, Florida. Known for its natural beauty, the area features an abundance of parks, nature preserves, and waterways, such as the Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve and the Jacksonville Zoo and Gardens. With its mix of affordable housing options, shopping centers, and easy access to downtown Jacksonville, Northside offers a comfortable suburban lifestyle for residents. The neighborhood’s spacious layout and emphasis on outdoor recreation make it an appealing choice for those seeking a balance between city amenities and the tranquility of nature.

3 – Baymeadows

Baymeadows is a diverse and thriving neighborhood in the southeastern part of Jacksonville, Florida. This area is well-known for its mix of residential, commercial, and recreational spaces, offering a balanced lifestyle for its residents. With a wide range of housing options, excellent schools, and numerous dining and shopping options, Baymeadows is an attractive location for families and young professionals alike. Its close proximity to major highways and the St. Johns Town Center makes it a convenient and desirable place to live in Jacksonville.

To view Sample Investment Properties in Jacksonville starting at $250k, sign up for your free RealWealth membership.

Tampa, Florida Housing Market Predictions 2023 & 2024

Let’s explore Florida housing market predictions and trends for homebuyers, sellers and investors interested in buying in Tampa.

Overview of the Tampa metro area

Tampa, Florida is a major economic and cultural hub for the state of Florida. The city’s thriving business environment and its diverse population have made it a popular destination for both residents and businesses. As a result, the Tampa metro area has experienced a surge in real estate development in recent years.

The city’s business environment is particularly strong thanks to its large concentration of Fortune 500 companies. Tampa is also home to a number of major universities, including the University of South Florida and Hillsborough Community College. These institutions attract a large number of students and young professionals, who contribute to the city’s vibrant economy.

Tampa’s strategic location on the Gulf of Mexico and its port–Tampa Bay–have made it an important transportation hub for the region. Its port is one of the largest in the United States–making it a vital gateway for trade and commerce.

Tampa has a long and storied military history.. In 1898, the city was the primary outfitting and embarkation port for U.S. troops bound for Cuba during the Spanish-American War. Today, MacDill Air Force Base is home to the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command, two of the most prominent military commands in the world.

The Tampa metropolitan area has seen consistent growth in population and job opportunities, causing high demand for housing. The city’s population has increased by nearly 20% in the past decade, making it one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country.

In April 2023, the median listing price for homes in Tampa, FL was $400.4K, unchanged from April 2022. The median listing price per square foot was $258. The median sold price was $410K according to Realtor.com

These figures suggest that the Tampa housing market remains competitive, with homes selling quickly and for close to their asking price. The low inventory of homes for sale is likely contributing to the high prices.

Tampa market predictions for 2023, 2024 & beyond

1 – Property prices

Single and multifamily housing construction is on the rise but still lagging demand

Tampa’s housing market is expected to remain strong in 2023, with both single- and multifamily construction driving growth.

The number of single-family permits issued in the first quarter of 2023 was 2,808, a 29% decrease from the same time period one year earlier. However, there were 4,046 multifamily housing permits approved during this time frame—a 314% increase compared to a year prior.

Tampa’s supply of homes for sale has increased to 2.4 months, up 1.6 months from last year. This is still below the levels of a balanced market–which is typically considered 6 months of supply–and slightly below the nation’s 2.6-month inventory.

With strong demand and limited supply driving prices higher, Tampa’s housing market is expected to remain strong in 2023. However, the pace of price appreciation is expected to slow as more homes come onto the market.

Tampa will continue to remain a competitive market due to strong job growth and in-migration

Tampa’s housing market is moving slower than it did last year, but there are still more buyers than houses in Tampa. Redfin reports that Tampa home prices increased 3.1% in April 2023 compared to last year, selling for a median price of $410K. Tampa home prices are still on the rise, even though the rate of appreciation has slowed.

2 – Rental rates

Year-over-year rent prices in Tampa Bay will decrease slightly but rents will remain high

Realtor.com says Tampa was one of 9 states that saw a year-over-year rent decline in November 2022. Tampa saw rents drop by 1.8%.

But Tampa Bay remains one of the most competitive rental markets in the United States. In fact, a recent study found that Tampa Bay has the 10th highest lease renewal rate in the nation, at 69.4%.
In 2022, for every vacant apartment in Tampa Bay, there were an average of 16 prospective renters who applied for it. Despite slight month-to-month declines in Tampa’s rental rates, the area’s high level of competition will keep rents high.

Evictions will rise as government officials consider rent control measures

According to data from the Eviction Lab, eviction filings in Tampa Bay have remained above pre-pandemic levels.

Eviction-Lab-Tampa-Evictions-Chart

Image Source: Eviction Lab

In April 2022, Tampa had 1,253 evictions. In April 2023, that number rose to 1,322. This represents an increase of 69 evictions, or 5.5%.

The trend of rising evictions in Tampa could force city leaders to consider some form of rent control. A measure will likely spark a fight that pits the city against the state since rent control is prohibited by Florida State Statute except under narrow circumstances. While the Tampa City Council voted down a rent hike limitation proposal last year, we might see more deliberation on rent control in coming years if evictions continue to increase.

In August 2022, the Hillsborough County Board of Commissioners passed an ordinance that made significant changes to eviction laws in Tampa. The ordinance requires landlords to provide at least 60 days’ notice before increasing rent or other fees by more than 5% for long-term leases. Additionally, landlords must now provide 60 days’ notice before terminating long-term leases.

The rental vacancy rate will continue to decrease

Tampa’s rental vacancy rate has decreased slightly from last year, but it is still higher than the national average. The vacancy rate in Tampa is 7.5%, while the national average is 5.8%. This could be due to the increase in multifamily permits that were issued last year, which likely led to an increase in rental supply. Because of the high demand for rental housing, the area’s vacancy rate will continue to drop in the coming years.

A few Tampa neighborhoods to consider investing in

1 – South Tampa

South Tampa is an upscale, vibrant neighborhood in Tampa, Florida. Known for its picturesque tree-lined streets, beautiful homes, and abundance of shopping and dining options, South Tampa offers a unique blend of suburban charm and urban amenities. Popular attractions include Bayshore Boulevard, Hyde Park Village, and Palma Ceia Golf & Country Club. With its excellent schools, parks, and close proximity to downtown Tampa, South Tampa is a highly sought-after residential area for families and young professionals alike.

2 – Plant City

Plant City is a historic town situated about 24 miles east of Tampa, Florida. Renowned as the “Winter Strawberry Capital of the World,” Plant City is famous for its annual Florida Strawberry Festival, which celebrates the local agricultural heritage. The charming downtown area features antique shops, boutiques, and restaurants, while the surrounding countryside boasts lush strawberry fields and farmland. With its small-town charm, rich history, and easy access to Tampa’s urban amenities, Plant City offers a delightful blend of rural living and city convenience.

3 – Downtown Tampa

Downtown Tampa is the bustling heart of Tampa, Florida, known for its stunning skyline, waterfront views, and vibrant urban atmosphere. This lively district is home to numerous attractions, including the Tampa Riverwalk, Amalie Arena, and the Florida Aquarium. With a wide variety of shops, restaurants, museums, and parks, Downtown Tampa offers a diverse and exciting experience for visitors and residents alike. As a major business hub and entertainment destination, Downtown Tampa continues to grow and thrive, making it a dynamic place to live, work, and play.

To view Sample Investment Properties in Tampa starting at $300k, sign up for your free RealWealth membership.

Quick Final Thoughts

Now that you’ve seen some of the most pertinent Florida housing market predictions for 2023 and 2024, check out trends and forecasts for the US real estate market from 2023 to 2027 here.

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