Whether you’re an avid home-buyer or a seasoned investor, navigating through the constantly changing tide of the Georgia real estate market can be a challenging task. Our aim is to provide key insights and Georgia housing market predictions that help simplify this process and equip you with crucial information for your next big move.
In this article, we delve into:
- Investor Activity: Georgia continues to thrive as a hotspot for investor activity, holding its position solidly amongst the most active states in the country.
- Home Prices: One of our Georgia housing market predictions for 2023 and 2024 is a steady rise in home prices, albeit at a slower pace as home sales bounce back.
New Home Inventory: The supply of new homes is still low, with inventory down by 23.1% YOY as of May 2023 and the average months supply having whittled down to only two months. This trend will continue into 2024.
- Hottest Housing Market: Gainesville, Georgia was ranked the hottest housing market in the US in 2023, as per a recent study by Bankrate. This city is experiencing rapid growth, and home prices are rising accordingly. And it’s likely that Gainesville will continue to be a hot market in 2024.
Our Georgia housing market predictions derive from comprehensive research and analysis, utilizing data from authoritative sources such as Redfin, the NAR, Bankrate, CoreLogic, the Georgia Association of Realtors, and more. However, it’s important to consider these predictions as educated projections based on available data and trends, rather than guaranteed outcomes.
In the dynamic landscape of real estate, uncertainty is a given; but with ample preparation and knowledge, you’ll be well-equipped to make informed decisions.
Georgia Housing Market Trends & Factors Influencing Growth
Bankrate’s recent research shows that Georgia is making waves in the U.S. housing market. Recent research conducted by Bankrate revealed that metro areas in Georgia, along with Tennessee, Florida, and North Carolina, top the charts as the country’s strongest seller’s markets.
Dominating the Bankrate’s Housing Heat Index is Gainesville, a burgeoning Georgia metro area with a population of 207,000. Positioned strategically approximately 50 miles northeast of Atlanta, it’s clearly a region that’s caught the eye of investors. Acworth and Woodstock, two other cities in North Georgia, are also gaining investor interest for their affordability and sustainable growth.
Additionally, Warner Robins has made its mark, achieving the third-highest gains in home prices in Q1 2023. In this section, we deep-dive into some pivotal trends to reveal the forces driving Georgia’s housing market growth.
Population growth and migration patterns
The latest census data reveals significant shifts in residential patterns within Georgia, with a consequential impact on the state’s housing market.
Savannah-Hinesville-Statesboro and Jacksonville-St Marys-Palatka, two of Georgia’s combined statistical areas (CSAs), were ranked 13th and 15th respectively among areas with the largest net domestic migration between 2019 and 2021.
Image Source: Census.gov
Net domestic migration is calculated by subtracting the number of people moving out (outmigration) from those moving in (in-migration) during a specific period. Georgia’s population expanded by 1.7% from 2020 to 2022.
Suburban and exurban counties saw the most growth. Long County, southwest of Savannah, registered nearly 13% gains in population. Gwinnett and Fulton experienced population increases of 1.81% and 0.5% respectively, whilst DeKalb recorded a slight population decrease.
From 2020 to 2021, Georgia experienced a net population increase of nearly 114,000 residents, according to the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget. It is expected to grow by an additional 1.1 million between 2021 and 2030.
Such demographic dynamics prospectively exert pressure on the housing market. As areas record net migration gains, the demand for housing intensifies, driving up home values and rental rates. Conversely, outmigration, as witnessed in DeKalb, may signal affordability issues that could lead to reduced housing demand and potential price stagnation.
Employment and economic indicators
Georgia’s GDP stood at $792 billion as of Q1 2023, marking a 7.4% QoQ growth. The unemployment rate was 3.2% in May 2023, lower than the national average of 3.7%.
The real estate sector contributed $137.6 billion, or 18.2% of Georgia’s gross state product, in 2022. This indicates a buoyant housing market underpinned by robust commission income and new construction expenditure.
The state’s per capita income in 2022 was $57,129, ranking Georgia 37th among states. Though below the national average, it exceeded the Southeast regional mean. Conversely, the poverty rate was above the national average, implying potential affordability issues in the housing market for some income groups.
Activity pockets such as Savannah, insulated from nationwide recession by Georgia Ports Authority investments and the burgeoning logistics industry, continue to stimulate residential and non-residential development. The well-established fintech cluster in the Atlanta MSA shows significant growth, with firms like Global Payments expanding their reach. New entrants like Visa’s fintech hub add to this momentum, forecast to create approximately 1,000 jobs. This, coupled with developments in the automotive sector, such as Hyundai suppliers, signals rising disposable incomes and consequently, increasing demand in the housing market.
Major employers, including Emory Healthcare, Cox Communications, Walmart, Piedmont Healthcare, and Home Depot, across sectors like healthcare, retail trade, accommodation and food services, manufacturing, and finance, ensure steady employment levels and income streams, thereby maintaining housing demand.
Real estate development and construction trends
The real estate market in Georgia, like the rest of the nation, has been influenced by the recent mortgage rate increases. Over the past year, sales volume has decreased.
While the cost of purchasing a home in Georgia is still moderate and affordable, the rate of real estate appreciation in the state has been close to double that of the rest of the nation.
As of the first quarter of 2023, Georgia was one of the states with the highest investor purchase share. California leads the nation with investors accounting for 34% of single-family purchases. Georgia and Kansas come in close behind, with investors accounting for 33% of the total purchases in each state.
Yet construction in Georgia is moving at a slow pace, much like in many other parts of the US. As per May 2023 data from Redfin, Georgia had 38,799 homes for sale, marking a 0.4% year-over-year increase. But the number of newly listed homes stood at 14,002, down 23.1% from May 2022. Georgia currently has 2-months’ worth of supply, which is significantly lower than current demand for homes in the state.
Apart from workforce shortages and the cost of building materials, government regulations significantly impact housing supply and affordability in Georgia. This point was emphasized in a study conducted by the Georgia Public Policy Foundation.
In Georgia, home builders are subject to various regulatory costs. These costs include different fees, standards, and other requirements imposed by federal, state, or local governments at different stages of the development and construction process. The housing market’s ability to adapt to these and future changes will likely play a key role in defining Georgia’s real estate landscape.
Government policies and regulations affecting real estate
A recent Georgia Policy survey of developers and builders reveals that government regulations at the federal, state, and local levels contribute to almost 27% of the final price of a new single-family home in Georgia. This figure is higher than the national average, reflecting the intense regulatory burden in the state.
These regulations affect both the lot-development and construction phases of house building. The survey employed the same methodology used by the National Association of Home Builders and found that:
- Regulatory costs during the lot-development phase make up 11.3% of the final home price.
- Regulatory costs during the construction phase comprise 15.6% of the final house price.
In total, regulatory cost accounts for 26.9% of the final price of a newly built single-family home.
One noteworthy point from the Georgia survey is that affordability is becoming a major issue for homeowners and renters alike. One in seven Georgians spend over 50% of their income on housing.
The situation is exacerbated in Metro Atlanta, which has seen a 38% increase in rent in the last three years alone. This is compared to a mere 10% increase in wages, raising concerns about housing affordability.
In response to these challenges, lawmakers in Georgia may envisage introducing regulations designed to make homes more affordable. Future government policies and regulations will certainly play a crucial part in shaping the housing market in Georgia.
Atlanta, Georgia Housing Market Predictions
In recent years, Atlanta has experienced a surge in growth and development, making it a prime location for real estate investments. A Realtor.com article published in December 2022 highlighted Atlanta as one of the housing markets to watch in 2023.
This Atlanta, Georgia housing market prediction was based on various factors such as job growth, housing affordability, and population growth. Here, we will delve into the Atlanta housing market, explore emerging trends, and examine what to expect in the second half of 2023 to 2024.
Overview of the Atlanta metro area
The Atlanta metro area, also known as the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area, is a thriving economic, cultural, and demographic center in Georgia. As the state’s most populous metropolitan area and the eighth-largest in the U.S., Atlanta has become the epicenter of growth and opportunity.
In recent years, the Atlanta housing market has expanded significantly. Between 2015 and 2020, the area attracted 443,000 new residents, placing it third behind Dallas and Houston in the U.S. Atlanta added 43,000 people from July 2020 to July 2021, averaging 117 new residents daily, with the 11-county metro area growing 16% in the past decade. This growth outpaces Georgia’s 11% growth rate.
Image Source: Census.gov
The Redfin competitiveness score of 59 demonstrates a somewhat competitive market, with homes receiving 3 offers on average and selling within 29 days. This is despite a 3.2% year-over-year decrease in median home sale prices. The average house price in Georgia in May 2023 was $441k..
Atlanta’s vibrant job market, housing affordability, and thriving business environment, supported by investments from major technology companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Visa, make it an ideal location to invest in real estate.
Atlanta Real Estate Market Predictions & Forecast 2023 & 2024
1 – Property prices
Rebounding sales and home price growth as mortgage rates stabilize
As we progress through 2023, the Atlanta housing market offers a mixed picture according to several reports. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports a year-over-year increase in Atlanta’s home prices; however, price growth slowed significantly to just 1.1% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2023.
On the other hand, Redfin’s data for May 2023 indicates that average home prices in Atlanta declined year over year by 3.2%, with homes selling for approximately 1% below the list price and going pending in around 29 days.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis‘ data shows a rise in the house price index for the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta GA MSA, moving from 343.41 to 346 between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. This suggests that buyers are returning to the market.
Furthermore, due to low inventory, bidding wars are now common, as sellers hold out for falling mortgage rates and buyers vie for the limited number of available homes. Redfin reports that the average home in Atlanta receives three offers.
Given the current trends, we expect that sales rebound could spur steady home price growth. As long as demand outpaces supply, Atlanta real estate will continue to see strong competition and bidding wars.
Single-family home construction remains low.
Currently, the Atlanta housing market is grappling with a notable downturn in home sales. According to RE/MAX’s February report, home sales in the metro area were down by 29.2% year-over-year. A significant factor contributing to this decline is low inventory.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) Local Market Reports indicate a dip in single-family housing permits in Atlanta by 22.4% from the 1st quarter of 2022. The overall level of construction is reported to be 6.8% below the long-term average.
However, there’s a silver lining as recent data reveals the number of construction jobs in the Atlanta metro area has increased from 140,000 to 143,200 between April and May 2023. Meanwhile, Realtor.com data shows inventory has risen slightly from 12,566 listings in May 2023 to 13,276 in June 2023.
The increase in construction jobs could indicate a potential shift in pace towards the end of 2023. If this rise in construction jobs translates into more single-family home construction, we may see an easing in inventory constraints.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2023 and into 2024, if the construction sector’s growth continues, we can expect a more favorable balance between supply and demand.
South East Atlanta poised to experience higher appreciation than the rest of Atlanta
The Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta MSA has been making noticeable progress in recent years, securing the 61st place in the FHFA rankings for metro areas showing the highest percentage changes in house prices. The region has witnessed a significant year-over-year change of 11.04%, and a striking home price appreciation rate of over 70% in the last five years.
Interestingly, the southeastern portion of the city and Atlanta’s southern suburbs previously experienced lagging investment. This trend is now shifting due to the rising scarcity of land in other parts of the metro area. Recognizing this potential, John O’Callaghan, CEO of the Atlanta Neighborhood Development Partnership, labels the South Metro an “undervalued” market.
Indeed, areas south of Atlanta, like McDonough and extending as far south as Macon, are currently observing a massive surge in construction activities. This growth is a direct result of continuous upward price trends, urging new homebuyers to look further afield for affordability.
Looking ahead into 2024, we can anticipate a continuation of these trends. The rising scarcity of land in other metro areas is likely to drive even higher appreciation in Southeast Atlanta and its suburbs compared to the rest of the city. Furthermore, the hunt for affordable options will attract more out-of-state and first-time homebuyers, escalating the demand for new developments.
2 – Rental rates
Rents will decline slowly but steadily as multifamily inventory increases
During the first quarter of 2023, the rental market in Atlanta declined slightly. The median rent for all property types and bedrooms was $2,150 in June 2023, reflecting a 2.1% ($45) decrease from 2022, although it still sits 2% above the national average.
Realtor.com recently reported that Atlanta was one of the top 5 metros that have experienced significant year-on-year rent reductions. The metros making up this list include Austin, TX (-5.6%), Tampa, FL (-4%), Dallas, TX (-3.6%), Charlotte, NC (-3.5%), and Atlanta, GA (-3.1%). Interestingly, each of these cities showed considerable tech sector growth during the pandemic.
A surge in new multifamily units contributes to these reductions. A May 2023 report from Yardi Matrix shows that multifamily construction in Atlanta is strong, with 38,105 units in progress and another 144,000 units in the planning and permitting stages. Yardi Matrix predicts that nearly 15,000 multifamily units are expected to be released in 2023. This could be Atlanta’s highest rate of delivery of multifamily units in a decade.
Considering the above, one of the current trends in the Atlanta housing market is a slow but steady decline in rents as multi-family units inventory increases. The increase in the inventory of multi-family units will likely keep rents at a manageable level for residents, as available housing choices should prevent dramatic increases in rental prices.
High rental vacancies expected to persist until rent prices stabilize
In Q1 of 2023, rental vacancies displayed an unsurprising uptick across Georgia, jumping from 6.3% in Q4 of 2022 to 7.8%. An even more significant increase was observed in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell metro area where vacancies rose from 5.4% to 9.8%.
This rise in vacancy rates can be attributed to faster rent growth. This has made it challenging for landlords to find qualified tenants, increasing the risk of longer vacancies. However, the bright side to this trend is that the decline in rents indicates a potential correction in rent prices as new inventory comes on the market.
Atlanta neighborhoods to consider investing in for 2023 and 2024
1 – Acworth
Located 30 miles north of Atlanta, in Cobb County, Georgia, lies Acworth. This city, nestled along Lake Acworth, presents an optimal opportunity for those seeking proximity to one of the South’s pivotal commercial hubs, while avoiding the usual pitfalls of traffic and noise.
Acworth is one of the fastest growing cities in metro Atlanta. It boasts a population of 22,300. Essential contributors to its growth include a competitive low tax rate – a significant advantage for businesses – and a high quality of life for residents.
Water enthusiasts will find a dual attraction within Acworth. Lake Acworth, a nonmotorized lake, and Lake Allatoona, a well-known destination, serve as centers for various aquatic activities. Kayaking, wakeboarding (including pro tournaments), stand-up paddleboarding, and beach picnics are regular activities for residents and visitors alike.
2 – Woodstock City
Woodstock City, located in Cherokee County, Georgia, has undergone significant growth and development over the past decade, transforming from a sleepy railroad town to the county’s fastest-growing city. With a population of 35,065 as of 2020 (according to the US Census Bureau), Woodstock offers a unique blend of small-town charm and modern amenities.
The city boasts a 32-acre master-planned district in its downtown core, featuring miles of multi-use trails and parks, as well as an arts district. Additionally, Woodstock has been recognized by Money magazine as one of the best places to live in the US. It ranks at number 31 on their list.
3 – Suwanee
Suwanee is a city located about 30 miles north of Atlanta, in Gwinnett County. It is known for its distinctive parks, crowd-pleasing events, and high-quality mixed-use developments. The city is also home to several progressive, high-tech firms, making it a great place to invest in 2023 and 2024.
Suwanee is a family-friendly area, with great schools and plenty of activities for kids. The city is also very well-connected, with easy access to downtown Atlanta and Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.
In conclusion, this article has explored the various Georgia housing market predictions and trends for 2023 and 2024. We have also delved into trends and forecasts for the 2023 and 2024 Atlanta real estate market. Lastly, we looked at some of the best investment opportunities to consider in Atlanta.
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