Florida Housing Market Predictions for 2025 & Beyond

What is happening with the Florida housing market? We researched the key factors shaping Florida’s real estate market and the trends investors need to know for 2025. Here’s the lowdown on the Sunshine State:

• Stabilizing or slightly increasing home prices. Across most Florida markets, home prices are expected to stabilize or see modest growth. Areas like Cape Coral and Fort Myers may see slight declines initially, but as buyer confidence and economic conditions improve, these markets will pick back up gradually. Jacksonville is predicted to have near-zero appreciation in 2025, while Ocala may return to a seller’s market with moderate price appreciation.
• Shift to a more balanced or buyer-friendly market. In markets like Cape Coral and Fort Myers, inventory is increasing, with longer days on the market and selling below list price. These indicators show that the market is transitioning into a buyer’s market. Jacksonville’s market is somewhat balanced, giving buyers more negotiating power. Buyers now have more leverage even in Ocala, where things are still a bit competitive.
• Varying rental market trends. Due to increased construction, Cape Coral and Fort Myers are seeing weakened rent growth and high vacancy rates. However, a recovery is on the horizon in late 2025 or early 2026. Due to increased construction, Jacksonville’s rents have declined too. However, if construction slows down as expected in 2025, there is potential for recovery as renter demand is still solid. We also expect moderate growth in Ocala’s rental market in 2025.

Below, you’ll find more insights on population growth, new construction, and economic factors that might impact the pricing and demand for investing in Florida real estate. We’ve also analyzed trends in four of Florida’s major markets: Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Jacksonville, and Ocala.

Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, these Florida housing market predictions will help you make informed decisions about your investments in 2025 and beyond.

The information below is supported by data and statistics from sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Florida Chamber of Commerce, Redfin, Florida Realtors, the NAR, and RealPage.

Before we dive into specific markets, let’s review the key factors driving Florida’s housing market.

It’s no news that Florida is one of the fastest-growing states in the United States. Four of the nation’s top five fastest-growing metro areas and three of the top 10 areas with the highest population gains between 2022 and 2023 were in Florida. These include metro areas like Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach. Together, these three areas alone added over 150,000 new residents.

For many areas in the South, strong population growth is driven by positive domestic migration. Florida is no exception. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 28 of the top 30 metro areas with the highest positive domestic migration were in the South. Florida is a major recipient of this influx of people. Over the last 10 years, migration into the state has grown on average by 3.7% per year, while migration out has grown by only 1.5%.

Image Source: Florida Chamber of Commerce

People moving from states like New York, New Jersey, and Illinois are attracted to Florida’s quality of life. However, the Sunshine State isn’t just seeing domestic migration; people are also moving in from outside the country.

In the twelve months between July 2022 and July 2023, Miami-Fort-Lauderdale-West Palm Beach was the only Florida metro to see net negative domestic migration. You’d think its population would decrease. Yet, it still saw overall population growth due to positive net international migration.

The downside to this fast growth is that the cost of living, including housing costs, has increased. Hence, some Floridians are moving to states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, which also offer no state income tax and a lower cost of living.

Future projections indicate that Florida will see an average annual population growth of 319,109 net new residents between April 1, 2024, and April 1, 2028 (1.37% growth rate per year). That is, the state will add 874 new residents per day over those five years, which is comparable to adding a new city the size of Orlando every year.

Right now, Florida’s economy is a little bit stronger than the overall U.S. economy. In the second quarter of 2024, Florida’s real GDP increased 3.2% from Q2 2023. For the same quarter, the national GDP growth rate was 3%.

Personal income also grew at an annualized rate of 5.2% in the second quarter of 2024. However, this was slightly less than the national personal income growth rate of 5.3%. These economic indicators are essential to consider when making Florida housing market predictions for 2025. They show that Florida’s economy is moving almost at the same pace as the U.S.

Florida also has a relatively healthy job market. The unemployment rate has been steady at 3.3%, lower than the national average. In July 2024, the state had 513,000 job openings, with a job openings rate of 4.9%. We can deduce from the data that the ratio of unemployed persons per job opening in Florida at the time was 0.7. This means there were more job openings than unemployed persons.

From October 2023 to October 2024, the state gained 133,200 jobs (a 1.4% increase). As of October 2024, there were 9,984,000 non-agricultural jobs in Florida. The state’s GDP reached $1.58 trillion in 2023, and tourism is one of the major drivers of its economy. Florida’s tourism sector will attract over 170 million visitors by 2029.

With ongoing population growth and strong consumer spending, experts predict that Florida’s economy will outperform the U.S. by at least half a percentage point in 2025. This positive economic outlook is key to our Florida housing market predictions for 2025 and beyond.

Source: FDEO

The post-pandemic recovery has been strong in Florida, with job growth exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Between February 2020 and July 2024, there was a 9.9% job increase (902,700 jobs). However, a slight slowdown is expected over the next two years. Experts say job growth will moderate to around 1.2% annually between 2025 and 2026.

Also, the unemployment rate might increase to around 4.6% between 2026 and 2027 but stabilize thereafter at around 4%. These projections will impact the Florida real estate forecast for the next 5 years.

Thanks to the Live Local Act, more affordable housing developments are popping up all across Florida. Developers are getting tax credits and exemptions to build in exurban communities like Homestead, Kendall West, Broward, and Lake Worth.

Florida is also seeing a significant upgrade in transit and infrastructure, such as the expansions of the Tri-Rail and Brightline. This is good news for commuters and a green light for builders. Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties already see increased building activity near transit stations.

With local governments in South Florida exploring redevelopment opportunities for unused plots, mainly west of urban cores, these developers have support.

As builders continue to build, buyers have more options. As of September 2024, there was a noticeable uptick in inventory for all housing types. Single-family home inventory has increased by 44% over the past year to 4.6 months of supply. Condos and townhouse units have risen by a whopping 80.5% year over year to 7.4 months of supply.

Many new construction properties have been completed since 2020, contributing to the significant increase in the Florida housing market supply and tipping the scales in favor of buyers.

Prices are also starting to stabilize, and based on current trends, our Florida real estate forecast is that prices will stabilize further in 2025 due to surplus inventory. According to Florida Realtors®, the median price of a single-family home in September was $410,000, barely a nudge up (0.2%) from the same time last year. Condo-townhouse units saw a dip of 3.4% in median prices from last year. The median price for these units in September was $314,000.

Florida is a large state, and each area tells its own story. Home prices are still rising in urban centers like Miami and Orlando, thanks to all the jobs and opportunities these places offer.

The old playbook for how agents earn commissions is getting tossed out. New rules went into play on August 17, 2024. Now, buyers and sellers can independently negotiate commissions.

Agents can no longer advertise their commission rates on Multiple Listing Services. As a buyer, you must sign written agreements outlining your agent’s pay. These changes will help clarify things and potentially save buyers and sellers money.

The Florida Department of Commerce also set new rules restricting people from “foreign countries of concern,” like China and Russia, from purchasing Florida real estate. However, these rules only apply to specific property types. And if you’re thinking of slipping through unnoticed, think again. There are lots of registration hoops to jump through. Violations can result in severe penalties, including property forfeiture.

For sellers of residential property, HB 1049, a new law that went into effect on October 1, 2024, requires you to disclose flood information before selling. If you manage an HOA with 100 parcels or more, HB 1203, which goes into effect on January 1, 2025, mandates you to keep important records accessible, either online or via an app.

HB 7073 requires insurers to give homestead owners a 1.75% discount on their total premium for year-long residential insurance policies.

There’s also HB 63, which allows property owners or their agents to request the quick removal of squatters from their homes or apartments.

Below, we’ll examine the Cape Coral, Florida, housing market and key real estate market trends for this area of the Sunshine State.

Bordered by the Caloosahatchee River to its east and south and Matlacha Pass to its west, the Cape Coral Peninsula features over 400 miles of navigable waterways—more than any other city worldwide.

The Cape Coral area is known for its coastal beauty, outdoor recreational opportunities, and relaxed lifestyle. Its charming downtown areas, beautiful beaches, and proximity to islands and nature preserves like Sanibel and Captiva Islands make it a popular destination for outdoor enthusiasts and seasonal residents. The area has numerous parks, golf courses, preserves, and water sports activities.

• The city of Cape Coral is the ninth-most populous in Florida.
• As of the 2020 Census, it had a population of 194,016.
• Between 2019 and 2023, the metro area saw a growth rate of between 2% and 3%. During this period, the population grew from 772,268 to 834,573. A population density of about 1,068.6 people per square mile.
• Compared to the over 31,000 new residents added between 2021 and 2022, the area added just a little over 12,000 between 2022 and 2023.

• Cape Coral has a stable job market.
• In October 2024, total nonfarm employment in the metro area was 311,900, an increase of 0.8% year over year.
• Government jobs increased the most, at 3.6% year over year.
• Mining, logging, and construction followed, with a 2.8% year-over-year job increase.
• The leisure and hospitality sector, one of the metro area’s most significant contributors to the economy, also increased marginally by 0.8% over the 12 months.
• While jobs aren’t growing fast in Cape Coral, the unemployment rate is relatively stable at 3.6%, lower than the U.S. average.

• The Cape Coral housing market become more buyer-friendly.
• In November 2024, Redfin reported that the median home price in Cape Coral was $389,450, up 1.2% from the previous year.
• While this is good news, the overall trend is that homes are selling about 3% below list price
• Homes are on the market for an average of 70 days, which is less competitive than it used to be.

With a boost in housing inventory, more than we’ve seen in years, buyers now have the upper hand. Prices have dipped slightly, and homes are on the market for longer. Cape Coral-Fort Myers was ranked fifth among mid-sized metros with the most new home construction, with 30.7 new homes authorized in 2023 per 1,000 existing homes.

With about 9.3 months of available inventory in November, up from 7.5 months last year, the market has transitioned into a buyer’s market. According to Redfin’s data, sales have slowed, dropping 6.3% year-over-year, and homes have stayed on the market 12 days longer than last year’s DOM. When they do sell, they’re going for nearly 3% under the listing price.

Recent hurricanes have left their mark on the Cape Coral, Florida, housing market with soaring insurance costs and significant home damage. However, as the economy stabilizes and buyer confidence improves, we should see a bit of a resurgence in demand and a slight rise in home values. If mortgage rates become more favorable over the next year, homes in Cape Coral could become more affordable.

While experts predict a national average home price increase of 2.6% and 3% in 2025, Cape Coral will likely see a more modest increase. However, home prices in the area are expected to decline before rebounding.

In May 2024, while the rest of the country saw a mild 0.2% increase in annual rent growth over the year, Cape Coral recorded the weakest growth. It saw a 9.1% rent decline between May 2023 and May 2024.

Cape Coral is seeing a dramatic correction after the double-digit rent increases it experienced from mid-2021 through early 2023. In April 2022, rent growth in Cape Coral peaked at 34.7%. But from November 2023 to May 2024, year-over-year rent reductions have ranged from 6% to 10%.

Apartment operators are cutting rents to maintain occupancy levels. Still, occupancy in Cape Coral-Fort Myers has dropped 620 basis points since early 2022. Cape Coral’s occupancy rate in May was 92%, below the national average of 94.2% for that month.

Zillow reports that the median rent in Cape Coral, FL, is $2,270 as of November 2024. The overall year-over-year trend shows a decrease of about $125 compared to the same time last year.

Based on historical data, Cape Coral’s rents have been markedly volatile, with significant increases in some months and steep declines in others. We don’t expect this to change in 2025. For example, from $2,400 in May, the median rent dropped to $2,157 in October. By November, it was back up to $2,300. These changes reflect the impact of demand and supply on the Cape Coral rental market.

Based on Redfin’s analysis of 79 metro areas, Cape Coral has the highest number of multifamily housing permits in 2024, with 27 multifamily housing units per 10,000 people. In 2023, it had 40 per 10,000 people in 2023, indicating a previous demand surge that developers have gone all out for. The volume of new units has outpaced demand, contributing to weak rent growth.

Once these new apartments are occupied, property owners might be able to start increasing rents again.

Below, are our Fort Myers housing market predictions for 2025 based on current trends.

The Fort Myers metro area (Cape Coral-Fort Myers MSA) is located in Southwest Florida. Its key cities include Fort Myers and Cape Coral (both in Lee County). The area is known for its coastal beauty, outdoor recreation, and nature preserves.

Popular attractions include Fort Myers Beach on Estero Island, Sanibel and Captiva Islands, The Great Calusa Blueway, numerous parks, and golf courses. Fishing, boating, and water sports are popular activities here.

• Healthcare, retail trade, and food services drive Fort Myers’ economy.
• Other growing sectors include logistics, distribution, tech, and manufacturing (including 3D printing).
• As of October 2024, the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area had a 3.6% unemployment rate, less than the national average, indicating a healthy labor and economic market.
• Jobs are not growing fast, but they are still rising.
• Total nonfarm wage and salary employment increased slightly from May to October 2024. It was 3,087,000 in May and 3,109,000 in October.
• The year-over-year growth rate was slow from October 2023 to October 2024, at just 0.8%.
  

• The population of the Cape Coral – Fort Myers metro area grew significantly from 2019 to 2023.
• The 2023 population was 834,573, up from 765,547 in 2020 and 772,268 in 2019.
• In the city of Fort Myers itself, there was a 12.7% population growth from April 2020 to July 2023 from 86,395 to 97,372 residents.

• Looking at current real estate trends in the area, we see a gradually cooling market.
• Redfin shows that the median price of a Fort Myers home was $392,500 in November, a 4.8% decrease from a year ago.
• Fort Myers is currently a buyer’s market with homes selling 4% below asking and taking s now sell for an average of 5% below asking price and take up to 81 days to sell. 

Housing prices are expected to take a hit in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area. Some buyers are already taking a step back as they are concerned about the area’s rising insurance costs and the increased risks of property damage due to natural disasters.

With more homes to choose from and fewer buyers in the fray, we’re seeing the first signs of a market cooling that could push prices down. But there’s a silver lining, at least for investors, as the Fort Myers, Florida, housing market still offers long-term appreciation potential and solid rental income opportunities. Wise investors will play the long game here or pick properties that can generate steady cash flow even when the market takes a dip.

If you live in Fort Myers, brace yourself for sticker shock, as homeowners insurance isn’t getting any cheaper. Costs for covering a $300,000 home now hover around $1,909 annually; $3,197 for a $500,000 home. That’s a 35% increase in two short years. A result of frequent and destructive hurricanes.

Fort Myers’ prime location near the coast has downsides—hurricanes, floods, you name it. These weather perils can raise insurance premiums for residents. But this trend of higher home insurance costs isn’t just a Fort Myers thing. It’s happening all across Florida,, and Florida’s housing market predictions for 2025 suggest this will continue.

A recent Insurify study showed that Florida homeowners pay the highest home insurance premiums in the country. In 2023, the average premium was as high as $10,996, much higher than the national average of $2,377.

A similar study by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) found that most Floridians pay between $2,500 and $4,000 annually for home insurance. In South Florida, home insurance premiums are usually north of $4,000.

Fort Myers has high vacancy rates, which hit 13.5% in mid-2024 due to a surge in multifamily construction. Currently, supply outstrips demand. With over 2,200 units already completed in the past year and another 6,700 units under construction, the inventory of high-quality apartments in the area is set to grow by 27.9%. With this in mind, we will likely continue to see high vacancy rates in Fort Myers’ multifamily market in 2025.

With vacancies high, rents are decreasing, and many new properties offer rent specials to entice renters, including 13.5-month leases on 12-month payments. Matthews’ report shows a 5.9% year-over-year drop in asking rents across Fort Myers in Q2 2024 as landlords face an oversupply issue.

It’s not just Fort Myers hitting a rough patch. Other Southwest markets like Naples and Sarasota are also riding the wave of declining rents, topping charts nobody wants to lead. Among U.S. multifamily markets with fewer than 50,000 units, these three Southwest Florida markets saw the biggest year-over-year rent declines in August 2024.

What does the future hold? It’s likely more of the same. With interest rates playing gatekeeper to new builds, we’d likely see construction slow down as the current batch makes their entrances without much fanfare. However, this could keep rents more stable after a period of steady declines.

Below, you’ll find our Jacksonville, Florida, housing market forecast for 2025, based on key trends in the area’s real estate market.

Known as the First Coast, Metro Jacksonville, or Northeast Florida, Jacksonville is the 40th largest metro area in the United States. With its population of over 1.7 million, it also ranks as the fourth largest in Florida, behind Miami, Tampa, and Orlando.

• Jacksonville has a well-diversified economy, with the finance, healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, and tech industries creating many jobs in the area.
• The city is the central economic hub of Northeast Florida, home to several Fortune 500 companies and a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem.
• It also has one of the busiest ports on the East Coast, the Port of Jacksonville (JAXPORT), which supports Florida’s economy with $31 billion in annual economic output from international and domestic trade.

• Jobs in Jacksonville are also growing at a steady pace.
• Nonfarm employment in the area reached 808,000 in October 2024, a 1.2% job increase from the previous year.
• Job growth has occurred in sectors like construction (4.7%), education and health services (3.5%), and trade, transport, and utilities (1.4%).
• As of October 2024, Jacksonville has a total labor force of about 850,000 and an unemployment rate of 3.5%.

• Population growth in the metro area is still strong.
• Between 2022 and 2023, Jacksonville’s metro area population increased from 1,676,000 to 1,713,000. That’s a growth rate of 2.2% (37,000 new residents) in just one year.
• Much of this growth is in the city, which added 14,000 new residents between 2022 and 2023, making it one of the top 10 cities with the most significant population gains between 2022 and 2023.

• Jacksonville’s real estate market is currently stable. This trend aligns with the broader Florida housing market predictions for 2025, which suggest a more balanced market.
• In November, the median home price in Jacksonville was $302,750, a .3% change from last year.
• Homes are on the market for an average of 64 days, up from 45 days last year.

The Northeast Florida Association of Realtors® reports that home inventory is increasing throughout Jacksonville. As of October 2024, active home inventory in Duval County grew to 3,804 homes (4.9 months of inventory), a 15.3% increase from September.

Clay County has about 5 months’ worth of supply, with an active inventory of 1,140 homes in October. That’s an increase of 7.9% from September 2024. St. Johns County also saw active inventory increase by 6% month-over-month to 2,071 homes. It had a 5.4 months’ worth of housing supply in October. All across the board, the market seems to be shifting towards balance.

Generally, the Jacksonville, Florida, housing market has cooled, with homes selling for 3% below list price and taking 64 days to sell. Redfin reports that there’s still moderate competition in the market. Zillow expects prices to climb 0.1% by the end of September 2025, which doesn’t move the needle much. We’ll likely continue to have more balanced market conditions in the Jacksonville housing market in 2025.

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, mortgage rates will drop, and buyers will likely buy. Don’t expect a significant drop, though. Experts forecast that rates might fall to around 5.5% by the end of 2025. If that happens, we should see increased demand for Jacksonville properties.

In addition, Jacksonville’s strong job market, particularly in the logistics and healthcare sectors, will continue attracting new residents, leading to increased demand in 2025.

In July 2024, nearly half (45.6%) of the rentals in Jacksonville came with concessions like free weeks of rent or complimentary parking, jumping up from just over a quarter (27.8%) last year. Landlords are stepping up to woo tenants in a market where increased supply has led to higher vacancy rates.

Because of oversupply, Jacksonville faced the steepest rent drop in the nation in September—a sharp 11.3% drop from last year, bucking the national trend of a 0.6% uptick. It seems the recent building frenzy has created a situation where there are more units than the market needs.

Apartment builders have focused on Jacksonville’s Southside and Saint Augustine submarkets. Over 1,400 and 1,300 units are under construction in these neighborhoods, respectively. Going forward, price declines might be felt most in these submarkets.

Experts call this the market’s lowest point. Thus, Jacksonville’s rent growth could return to normal between 2025 and 2026. According to forecasts, we expect a 2-3% increase in Jacksonville’s rental rates by Q4 2025.

MMG Real Estate Advisors reported that in 2024’s second quarter, Jacksonville saw significant rental market activity, with 2,298 units snapped up. This was more than the number of new units delivered that quarter. That’s a surefire sign that rental demand is still strong here.

Ocala’s real estate market has steadily climbed in recent years. Let’s dive into some expert Ocala, Florida, real estate market predictions for 2025.

Famous for its rolling hills, vast forests, and pristine springs, Ocala is naturally beautiful. Popular attractions include the Ocala National Forest, one of the biggest national forests in Florida, and Silver Springs State Park, famous for its crystal-clear waters and glass-bottom boat tours.

• Ocala’s economy is diverse.
• Key sectors include manufacturing (emergency vehicles, trucks, vans, storage units, and missiles), distribution, healthcare, and professional services.
• Ocala’s manufacturing employment significantly outpaces the Florida average.
• Ocala is also known as the “Horse Capital of the World,” the equine industry alone contributes $4.3 billion annually to the economy.

• Jobs have grown moderately over the past year, just 0.8% year over year as of October 2024.
• Nonfarm employment in the area grew slightly from June to October 2024, rising from 1,203,000 to 1,218,000 jobs.
• Mining, logging, and construction saw the highest growth, increasing from 99,000 to 102,000 jobs from June to October 2024. A substantial 7.4% year-over-year increase indicates strong activity in these industries.
• The unemployment rate fluctuated but declined slightly, dropping from 4.7% in July to 4.4% in October 2024.

• Ocala is one of Florida’s fastest-growing metro areas.
• Its population surged 3% from 2022 to 2023, reaching 409,959 residents.
• With this growth rate, the U.S. Census Bureau ranked Ocala the fourth among the fastest-growing U.S. metro areas during this period.

• In November, Ocala’s median home sale price dropped 5.6% year over year to $293,000.
• Redfin characterizes the market as “somewhat competitive,” with homes typically receiving one offer and selling in 47 days, which is only one day less than last year.

In Ocala/Marion County, September’s median home price hovered at $290,000, dipping slightly by 1% from last year. This is an indicator that the market is finding its balance. Home sales also softened, with 682 homes closing in September, marking an 8.7% drop from the same month last year.

According to Redfin’s insights, homes generally sold for 96.8% of their list price in October, hinting that buyers might have some wiggle room to negotiate.

As of November 2024, there are about 5.5 months of homes for sale in the Ocala, Florida, housing market. In November 2023, the supply was 3.8 months. But even with the increased inventory, the market is still mildly competitive. Inventory is up, but so is demand, especially for homes priced in that sweet spot from $200k to $300k.

As the economy improves, home prices may pick up in 2025. Zillow forecasts that the average home price in Ocala could increase by 2.2% in August 2025.

Zillow reports that the median rent in Ocala as of November 2024 is $1,725, virtually the same as last November. The median rent was also unchanged from last month. That tells us that rental demand and supply in Ocala are currently balanced.

There have been some month-to-month fluctuations, though. For example, the median rent decreased by $32 between September and October 2024—however, the overall trend points to a stable rental market.

Zillow’s stats show that Ocala’s median rent sits comfortably 14% below the national average, sweetening the deal for budget-conscious renters.

Thanks to affordability and a buoyant economy, Ocala’s rental market is set to thrive in 2025. However, expect a gentle climb in rental rates rather than the sharp increases in previous years.

While specific Florida housing market trends may vary by location, much of the state is experiencing inventory stabilization and rent price decrease or stabilization. One of the key reasons for this is that new construction rental units are now available to renters, and landlords are offering incentives. When looking into the Florida market for potential investment properties, dive into the data for that specific location and do your due diligence.

If you are considering investing in the Florida real estate market, join RealWealth today for free! As a member, you’ll have access to all of our resources, including a direct connection to the turnkey property team we work with selling single family and new build investment properties in Florida. Plus, our investment counselors are only a call away if you have questions about investing in the Sunshine State.